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Wednesday, March 7, 2012

AAPL trading dynamic

Below are a few thoughts on how Apple may trade. I kept seeing some unrealistic chatter that suggested AAPL could 'theoretically' see 460, and that is simply unrealistic unless the market declines significantly.

The technicals suggest an initial base support around 516 has developed.

However, with the knowledge that everyone is in the stock, especially loose hands, a push to 500 would not surprise me.

Below 490 Apple's multiple gets into the 'discounted' range, removing the fact that it is best of breed. If that happens the market is being very inefficient.

update 03/07/12 2:28pm: The stock is acting much better than I expected, and not as volatile throughout the presentation. Maybe a new phase of less volatility is coming to the stock. Thinking it may chill-out around 516. Will look for an entry at that level.

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