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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

thoughts on GOOG, MA and QCOM

If we get this severe 'deflation' or EU induced global recession, as CNBC was touting today, all day, then the trailing multiples of GOOG and MA are too high.

Despite their healthy looking charts, GOOG and MA, have a tendency to trade with a trailing PE below 20 during times of economic slowdown fears. With fears of a severe slow down, MA traded with a multiple near 17, and GOOG near mid 16. QCOM's chart is not as healthy, but has the same tendency.

GOOG current trailing PE: 21 (There are a slew of technical support, but the 50SMA may be the most plausible.)
MA current trailing PE: mid 20 (The 62 seems like a plausible support. MA is already on the current 38SMA support, not pictured. The 38SMA is what supported MA at the end of Nov.)
QCOM current trailing PE: 21.11 (I am not sure how low QCOM can go. 49-50 seems reasonable depending on any potential market negativity.)

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