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Saturday, December 3, 2011

Market Thought... obvious technical resistance

There is obvious technical resistance via the SP500 daily chart.

There is also a strong case to be made that many individual stocks are at resistance levels as well.  The obvious play is to follow the obvious resistance.

With the thesis of stability now in play, the SP500 consolidation should be minimal.  It should maintain the 360SMA support, near 1230.

A 'tell' to the stability is the 10yr yield holding the low-end support.  (Right now it adds evidence to the suggested market pull-back to be seen.)

The pull back should allow for entry points in names like IBM, GOOG, SU, NUE and pretty much any other name of interest. After the pull back the market will make its way higher.

Even with my 'not so optimistic view', if we only see 5% earnings growth the SP500 will have around a 100eps, suggesting a 1300-1400 market for 2012 via a trailing multiple of 13-14. For a year end push higher, the best plays are the ones already benefitting. The most obvious are IBM and GOOG. (Although the EU will look to milk Google through their 'anti-competitive' claims.)

The only market concerns that remain now:

1. An EU bank goes under
2. EU country downgrade
3. Iran conflict escalates

None of the concerns will create a credit event, as the global central banks will prevent it, and the market is already discounted enough that these issues will be minor bumps, not major shocks.

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