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Monday, December 12, 2011

Market Thought... ignorning the end of the world

Sometimes, I find myself just shrugging my shoulders at the market action.  Today was one of those days.

Everyone knows the rating agencies will down grade the core countries.  The money market funds know it too, and they have already unloaded. When the SP500 down graded US debt, it caught everyone (who wasn't told by Standard and Poor's) by surprised. Hence, global markets reacted fiercely.

Despite today's weakness, all technical significance is still intact.

The dollar. Now overbought, and on its trend line resistance.

The 10yr yield. Still holding on to the current low end support. 

SP500. Still maintaining the 360SMA.

On the fundamental side, below is an extrapolation of market earnings expectations from DD's new guidance. A company so ingrained into the economy merits such attention.  They lowered analysts expectations by 4%. Because of this, I conservatively lowered SP500 earnings expectations by 4-5% throughout 2012.  As of 12/08/11, analyst SP500 earnings expectations are listed below with a very low expected trailing PE between 12.5-13.5:

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