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Thursday, December 29, 2011

MSFT gonna do something in 2012

MSFT's chart is suggesting some interesting movement in 2012.  Over the last few months, the chart has seen an interesting triangle pattern. Higher lows, lower highs and it suggest a strong move up or down is coming.

For the record, I am no fan of MSFT management and their 'reactive' business model, hence stay away from the stock.

The above chart corroborates with the fundamentals.  MSFT has shifted toward next stage tech, albeit fairly late to the game (reactive).  They are in:

1. cloud
2. home entertainment
3. viable mobile ecosystem
4. leverage social element via Skype
5. Bing

The bullish case is to state the above, along with a really low trailing multiple, which would suggest MSFT would push higher from here.

The bearish case is to state the above, and point out the collapse in profit margins the company will see which would suggest a break down from the above chart.

IMO, the truth is somewhere in between. MSFT is too large for the above to mean anything, and their margins will take a hit. But if they are positioned in the right technologies, take more of a proactive approach in entering these technologies (which would mean a change of leadership) and take an IBM approach with consistent buybacks/dividend policy, the multiple may even expand.

With an already high dividend (relatively speaking), and reduced multiple (which is already discounting a degree of margin compression), the bullish bet maybe the higher probability play.

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