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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Market Thought... negative breath

There seems to be a breath of bearishness, despite the stable action over the past few days.

The obvious answer is that we are at an obvious resistance. (Hence the title 'obvious technical resistance'.)  The obviousness is causing the bigboys to act.  Today is the second day we are seeing an up VIX while the market is up slightly.

The big boys are not sitting on their hands, they are protecting themselves.  But the 'thing' they are protecting themselves against is obvious.  There is the Dec 9th EU meeting, if we do not hear of the ECB funneling money to the sovereigns (through whatever vehicle they choose), the market will go down, fairly hard. The sense of stability will be lost, yet again.

If the EU announces a bullshit bond program, the EFSF or anyother EU bond, the market will decline.  These bonds are already a failure because of a piss poor execution.  But with Global Central Banks involved, I do not see how the ECB can get away with not doing their part.

So with the ECB printing, we can go back to focusing on company performance.  Then the the market will climb the wall-of-worry to the end of the year.

As a side note: I caught this Jim Rogers interview tonight, and I was thoroughly annoyed by it.

I mean, he goes on to say how much better shape the EU is against the US. Really? Seriously? The big wig EU nations are all debtor nations, just like the US. (His definition of better shape is a bit twisted.)  The only reason the US economy is growing so slowly is because the PUBLIC sector is taking the hits, while the private sector is doing pretty well.  The public sector is making cuts. Austerity has and is happening.  He is blatantly ignoring it. Also, in the same breath he praises Europe, then bashes it.  But what I really dislike the most is the fact that he has completely given up on America.

By saying America is going into a depression, he has given up on the world.  Few choices remain when the world is in a period of such instability. We know how it worked out 80yrs ago.  Why would now be any different? It wont. World War 3 will happen. I am just not ready to give up on the world like so many of these end-of-world mofos.

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