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Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Market Thought... interesting set up

The VIX is up while the 10yr yield is testing resistance, and the market is overbought (near the 200SMA).

Not the combination that gets me excited. Under normal times (a time where an entire continent is not on the verge of complete financial collapse), with the above set up, I would be shorting the crap out of this market.

But we are still in a market that is far from normal, with really light trading volume. The above set up, combined with the weakness of the banks today, suggests poor expectations on the Italian bond offering tomorrow.  IMO, the indicators are front-running the actual event.

At the risk of stating the complete obvious, if the bond auction is weak we may get a sell off or more blah movement like we got today.  If the bond auction is not a weak as expected, then the market should keep pushing higher.

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