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Friday, December 16, 2011

bloggers getting really bullish, aapl

Just wanted to pass along this info from two popular Apple bloggers. They are getting ridiculously bullish. These guys are not typically to be ignored. The proof is in the pudding, they are typically more accurate than the street analysts.

1. Andy Zaky. After a string of public posts, he tops it off with this one. Basically stating his around $11eps estimate will be the bottom end guidance for this quarter.

2. Andy Zaky highlights projections from Asymco, who agrees Apples is cheap.

I do not produce the kind of numbers these guys do, but I do follow the chatter and trends that give credence to their numbers.  IMO, the most important data point highlighted by Asymco was Apple's CapEx to iOS growth.

The reason I view device adoption rate with such importance is because its device growth rate is a key factor to justifies a company's multiple. (Although, Apple may have gotten to a point that it needs to take on more shareholder friendly practices now that it is a mega cap.)

I already highlighted AAPL's risk/reward profile. But if the bloggers' bullishness is right, we may start to see a new trading range for AAPL after they report.  Although, we should see a run up in AAPL  to the mid 420s as the quarter's end approaches.

Any market decline from a rating agencies downgrade of France/Germany I will add to AAPL. (That was always my plan, prior to these reports, and unload the added position in the low 420s, letting the rest ride into earnings.)

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