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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

thoughts on ATI

I was hoping to see some follow through on ATI before they report tomorrow, but obviously that is not happening. While I did chip away at the position I had a couple of days ago, when it had the big move, I still held a position thinking it would go to 68 before earnings.

The industry trends are at its back, but the market knows it, and rewards it with a premium multiple. Earnings is a crap shoot, if the market likes what it hears it will rally. If not, regardless of the numbers it produces, it will take a hit. (This one is not for the faint of heart to trade into earnings, its volatile.)

The prudent thing to do is to start trading it after they report, regardless if it goes up or down. How I will play it: if ATI makes up intraday losses, I will unload it. If not, I will ride the position out. (But I am not as confident going into earnings as I was with GOOG or AAPL.)

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