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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

AXP getting more social

I haven't actively traded AXP for a few months now because was concerned over the increased regulation on the payment networks, but ever since AmEx announced a deal with Foursquare I started to pay more attention to their attempt at 'getting social'.  Then, what got me really focused on AmEx again is their deal with Facebook (like, love, link)

I think their 'GoSocial' campaign is producing some really interesting concepts, which I think can carry increased usage with the social-age of the web.

Historically, AXP usually trades with a trailing PE between 14-15, but the regulatory back-drop created a discount. So I am factoring AXP trades between a trailing PE of 14-14.5, which would suggests a price range of 54-56 over the next three months.

However, without a supporting market, AXP should decline to uptrend support areas, and this is when I plan on pouncing.

The 76SMA acts as support on the daily, and when AXP approaches this level I will enter solid position in the Jan 2012 50 (strike) calls.

Similar supports are also shown within the weekly.
If investors love all things social, they will learn to appreciate AXP if their efforts show traction.  It will be nice to get ahead of this momentum.

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