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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Market Thought... yum

No, not the China power-house brand, but as the market declines, I say yum.

As the protection thesis takes hold, the obvious question is when to start buying. No easy answer. For instance, I look at AAPL, and it is trading below the 19 trailing PE. So I like it again. It should not be trading in the 330s any more. In my forward PE analysis, I think it should be trading between 340 and 358. And my use of PEs are at a discount. For instance, GOOG has a trailing PE of 25. If AAPL had a trailing PE of 25 it would be trading at 447. (It is not unrealistic to compare GOOG and AAPL, as both companies are dependent on a consumer's individual choice.)

So, as the market decline allows for the above situation to unfold, I did add back to the AAPL I traded over the past couple of days. (I am also very interested in MF and PBR, and waiting for the right set up for ATI, AXP and DIS.)

The next question is when to cover the protection. I still think valuations are very fair, and when I look at trailing market multiples, the SP500 is under valued. (see 'forward PE' under Links section) But as we know, psychology knows-no-fundamentals :)

When I look at the VIX, historical comparisons are difficult for the current market scenario. There were too many systemic issues to hold relevance over the past few years. Prior to 2008, around 32 usually would indicate a market rally low. But I do not think we are in a situation to see around 32, or higher. Barring any systemic issue, the VIX should see around 20-23 to re-gain bullishness for the current market trading dynamic.

This should correlate to an SP500 move to around 1260 or so.

Limited market down side, imo, is also supported by limited down side from the 10yr yield.

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