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Thursday, January 6, 2011

Market Thought... more detail

(Apparently there is no meeting, or rather people just put things on the calendar and like to waste time.)

Here is more detail around my current action. Along with my previous post, I kept thinking about a post I wrote after I got back from my honeymoon, 'maybe, maybe not'. The thesis of this post is dead on. So if we are in a situation where the market multiple will guide the market (while facilitated by the technicals), I can not ignore it.

Within the 'Links' section (upper right corner, below the pic) within 'forward PE', I incorporated a market range based on the estimates that I have for 2011. The multiple is between 14-15.

I will not ignore the technical set ups. This is just a baseline to gauge where we are with respect to market expectations. Barring a one-off event, right now, the SP500 is still below the low-end, and waiting for the proper technical set up to trigger a real correction.

Basically, the way I am now protecting myself is to sell of overbought names (ie AAPL, MF), and hold onto consolidated names (ie PBR, ATI, IBM, thinking of adding RHT.)

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