While listening to Fast Money, I heard one of the traders say during his diner with a major oil executive Natural Gas, the executive indicated natgas will not exceed $4.50 in America again. (min 5:20-6:05) Bold statement to say the least, but when you think of the action that CHK took to hedge Natural Gas (selling billions of dollars worth of calls against NatGas basically betting the commodity will not exceed $8), it seriously adds to the bearishness of Natural Gas. Then Joe and Karen indicated that if NatGas does not exceed $4.50, UNG will trade to $1.50.
The above adds to the general thesis that the supply of NatGas in this country is plentiful. (That is the only qualifying fact provided in this post, keep that in mind.)
Because of this, I will be looking to purchase UNG puts on any NatGas spikes. For instance, we may get a jump if the Job number is good next week, and if it pops, I will look to short. (I will indicate when I do.)