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Monday, October 18, 2010

Market Thought... scared?

Look in the mirror, and say 'No'. AAPL and IBM are taking a hit in AH. Take a step back, and assess the situation.

AAPL has major support via the daily 10SMA and 295 level. Also, valuation is on their side now. With the current AH decline, AAPL at 300 is trading with a trailing PE of low 19. LOW 19!!!!!!! They have the product with the fastest consumer adoption EVER! (The exclamations are not from me being upset, I indicated to take some profits, and I am very happy w/my trading.)

IBM simply had a kick ass quarter. The company is so big that analyst can target any aspect of the report to justify a sell off. This is exactly what analyst are doing right now. Justifying the decline with the service contract decline. (They apparently like to overlook the kick ass numbers, and inexpensive aspect of the stock.)

The obvious support are the SMAs, and various support anywhere from between 134 to 138. IBM now has a trailing earnings of 10.99. Slap whatever multiple you want on it, and defend it, because that is all that analysts will do to justify a target price on IBM. Prior to the crash, IBM has been trading with a trailing PE between 14-16. They keep proving themselves over-and-over again. (Oracle now wants to mimic them.) I think IBM is a premium name and deserves a 16 multiple, but I will settle for the 14.

When I was thinking about the market tonight, I just kept thinking of the above. If I feel the way I do above, I can not possible think the market breaks down here. It would be a contradiction.

Tonight's earnings obviously takes some juice out of the market, but that gives credence to the light resistance we are still in. I still think the 'always thinking' post is still in play.

If anyone is nervous, use the 120 Jan 2011 SPY puts for protection. The market support is the 14SMA. IF that breaks, the 1150 is strong support.

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