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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Market Thought... a wrench

My previous market thought (confirmation) has not changed. Looks like #2 is playing out instead of #1. But days like today really put a wrench in a short-term market thesis. :)

The Vix saw a dramatic rise, especially the last 20min of trading. It currently lies on resistance, which may facilitate a market bounce and should indicate a correction's bottom.

This could be the end, but I can not rule out every scenario. We may see a healthy SP500 correction to the 62 SMA (around 1150). This could translate into a VIX inversion with the SP500. This inversion indicating a true market correction bottom. (Although the size of today's Vix move would indicate such a correction's bottom, hence the wrench.)

I made no secret that I started to purchase names. At the same time, I have dry powder to go in heavy at the 62 SMA (which approximately translates to the 14SMA on the weekly.)

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