Search This Blog

Monday, April 26, 2010

The Facebook web... i really hope not

A ton of chatter last week, and carrying over to this week, regarding the F8 and Facebook's attempt to dominate the web. Every technocrat, and I think their mother, gave their more-qualified-opinion.

Basically, the Web-2.0-luminaries are overwhelmingly bullish on Facebook, and they believe Google maintains its current role, but is the target.

Regardless of reality, at the moment, this mass perception will cause multiple contraction within GOOG. (Talking valuation, why bother being in GOOG w/the above threat when an investor can be in AAPL for similar valuations, and maybe even better prospects.)

So a continued decline in GOOG should be expected, and now its a matter of how much multiple contraction will take place.

Right now, the charts show some solid support around 520s. (Bouncing off the 525 level, and the weekly 50 sma at 515.) These levels maybe good for a trade, but after the bounce, I am not convinced the contraction will be over. (I have to keep an eye on the 'facebook-perception' to get a better sense of where the multiple is going.)

NOTE: I hate facebook, as a user. I simply hate it. I use it primarily as a communication tool. Its platforms are extremely buggy, especially its mobile app (which is how I primarily use it), and lacking. I would never allow the company, or any other one for that matter, to gain such a strangle hold of me and my identifiable information.

Worst part is, GOOG gave the concept some what credibility when it distributed Google Buzz. And look how that turned out. People want privacy for certain things, and not for others. IMO, this paradox prevents the 'social web' from being more than just a glorified niche.

I understand the power of the social-web as a sharing mechanism, but to push it to be more, I fail to see.

Regardless, for the function of this blog, the only thing I truly understand is the psychology the market will have in light of the new development. I will leave the technological theories to the 'web 2.0 luminaries'.

No comments:

Post a Comment