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Saturday, April 10, 2010

Market Thought... taxes

Baby did I have to pay. Got my tax bill today, and mailed out the checks. 2009 was a pricey year...

When I look at individual names, there are clear indicator that the market is overbought, along with the charts of the markets themselves. But there are names that are not overbought, and earnings around the corner. The SP500 maybe able to push or sustain current levels, if reaction to the quarterly reports are good.

A very good summary of why investors should like this market is linked here. (Despite the fact that I have seen Mark Perry twist data to fit an agenda, it is hard to argue with the numbers in this video. Especially when the charts of the transports confirm what is being stated.)

Also, there will be job growth acceleration, and I think the general market direction is up.

The biggest negative is the situation in Europe, and that is also what may keep market rates low. That is why the 10yr yield, and TBT went down, after breaking out last week. The situation with the Euro is very bleak, and there will be a flight to safety capping market rates (in the US), making the US economy/markets look pretty freaking impressive for global investors.

Needless to say I am bullish, but am anticipating a market consolidation after earnings. Will look to short the SPY around 1215, or so, with June SPY Puts. (the strike price will most likely be the 124 or 125)

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