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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Market Thought... arrogant mofo

Apparently I'm an arrogant mofo, or so I was told today. I recognize there is some truth to my 'projection of some arrogance' when conveying information that I grasp very well, but I make a conscious effort not to be arrogant (as arrogance goes hand-in-hand w/ stupidity).

Until I can trade full time, I just gotz to roll with the punches of corporate America... awesome. (they have treated me well, so I can't complain)

Confidence is a whole other story. That, I got plenty of. But, more importantly, I know when I am not confident in something. (and here is the transition) Am I confident the market will go down? nope. Not after Apple's quarter. (Talk about a bitch slap to the bears!)

The troubling aspect of the market is that the Vix is retesting its lows, and the SP500 is retesting the weekly resistance. The set-up got me cautious enough to take on some protection before the market close.

Apple's earnings should provide a nice catalyst upward, but I do not think enough to break through the resistance just yet. At the same time, I do see a scenario for a sector rotation to take place, primarily in the energy names. I would like to add to the protection as the market opens, but I have jury duty tomorrow so I may not get the chance to trade.

Basically the market can continue to trend water here until the rotation trade is completed. From there, another analysis will be needed.

2 comments:

  1. Could you spell out the possible sector rotation scenario you're anticipating?

    Thanks and best wishes.

    ReplyDelete
  2. i think there is going to be some churn here, with a consolidating (potentially declining) market.

    There should be a shift into the energy names, among others, due to the macro economic conditions and their generally oversold position.

    PBR is a prime example. Natural gas in general is another example. The commodity is on the verge of retesting its low levels again. IMO, this is a trigger to begin moving into the Nat Gas players. (not just now, but very soon)

    ReplyDelete