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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Market Thought... arrogant mofo

Apparently I'm an arrogant mofo, or so I was told today. I recognize there is some truth to my 'projection of some arrogance' when conveying information that I grasp very well, but I make a conscious effort not to be arrogant (as arrogance goes hand-in-hand w/ stupidity).

Until I can trade full time, I just gotz to roll with the punches of corporate America... awesome. (they have treated me well, so I can't complain)

Confidence is a whole other story. That, I got plenty of. But, more importantly, I know when I am not confident in something. (and here is the transition) Am I confident the market will go down? nope. Not after Apple's quarter. (Talk about a bitch slap to the bears!)

The troubling aspect of the market is that the Vix is retesting its lows, and the SP500 is retesting the weekly resistance. The set-up got me cautious enough to take on some protection before the market close.

Apple's earnings should provide a nice catalyst upward, but I do not think enough to break through the resistance just yet. At the same time, I do see a scenario for a sector rotation to take place, primarily in the energy names. I would like to add to the protection as the market opens, but I have jury duty tomorrow so I may not get the chance to trade.

Basically the market can continue to trend water here until the rotation trade is completed. From there, another analysis will be needed.


  1. Could you spell out the possible sector rotation scenario you're anticipating?

    Thanks and best wishes.

  2. i think there is going to be some churn here, with a consolidating (potentially declining) market.

    There should be a shift into the energy names, among others, due to the macro economic conditions and their generally oversold position.

    PBR is a prime example. Natural gas in general is another example. The commodity is on the verge of retesting its low levels again. IMO, this is a trigger to begin moving into the Nat Gas players. (not just now, but very soon)