Search This Blog

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

quick thought... craziness

I am just watching my screen is amazement. At everything. There is just so much confusion everywhere. People talking about physics as if they know what the information means. (I'm a Chemical Engineer, but I am not going to pretend to know what anything about the situation in Japan.) Officials are acting out via the media, which doesn't help an the nuclear-ignorant layman by any means.

The markets are properly reflecting this uncertainty by going down, and the Vix approaching an inversion level with the SP500. (aka huge uncertainty, and if the risk is not systemic it is a big buy signal)

Then there are analyst that are, imo, trying to take advantage of this situation and add to the uncertainty. (Usually in times like these IBM has proven its worth, but not to everyone. Or using the Japan issue to highlight potential supply issues on the iPad 2.)

We are in a state of para-normal. It will stay this way. No chart, no cash flow analysis, nothing will change that until the nuclear meltdown threat eases up. There is no indicator for this, only the breaking news that will come via the media.

I am taking a hit today, a big hit. But the way I have prepared for moments like these are to be cash heavy, and ready to act. And I will act when the time comes.

There are a few certainties:

There is no way I am selling IBM below 167.

There is no way I am selling AAPL below 370.

There is no way I am selling any of my positions with the current level of uncertainty in this market.


  1. I think Credit Suisse agrees with your assessment on Apple. I do too. Any new ideas on the IBM downgrade?

  2. some of it was leaked to Barron's:

    The analyst raised his target price, then admitted to a strong showing, but placed IBM to a market perform because he/she was not sure they can grow sales as stated.

    Basically its a judgment call on the validity to management's ability to perform, which I can site his own data to merit his speculation worthless.

    In other words, its bullshit. (or at least from what was leaked to the media)