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Thursday, March 10, 2011

Market Thought... risk

I was originally going to wait and see how Friday turned out before I posted this, but I found myself unable to fall asleep, so here it is.

Know the risk to this market. We are at a precipice. The SP500 will either collapse or rally hard. The decision is based upon geopolitical factors where the odds, at the moment, are no better then flipping a coin.

I am very glad democracy is taking hold within areas. The people have a right to make decision that guide their homeland's destiny, but creating democracy is not easy. Just look at the history of America, as a key example. But if the people of Saudi Arabia decide to revolt, and the threat of instability gets even remotely close to Libya, the SP500 will see the 360 SMA long-term support around 1160.

The global powers, all of them, will not allow for a severe oil disruption of this magnitude. The G7, G8 or G-whatever will be the first in line to protect the supply.

I will not try to predict the political fall out in Saudi Arabia, all I care about for the purpose of this assessment, is the effect to the market.

There will be a shock to the system. The markets will decline, massively. But the intervention of the Global powers will ensure oil supply and force democratic stability. Due to this anticipated intervention, the long-term trend line should remain intact.

I do not want this scenario to play out, but there is too high a probability it might.


  1. So.......why no prediction of the earthquake? You holding out on us?

  2. Only some much 'predictions to go around'. Its like #tigerblood, unfortunately there is a limited supply :)