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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

quick thought... channel

Been fairly active regarding market protection trading.  Yesterday I closed out the protection in the AM weakness. But with today's push upward, to what I think may act as potential resistance, and the still overbought condition, I took on protection again.

IMO, to break upward we need to see earnings come through or Libya get resolved (which would mean oil comes down to sub 90 level.  But more importantly earnings. (Either we keep pushing higher and earnings will be a 'sell-the-news' event for the market, or we trend until the reports push us higher.)

FYI... I will post an assessment of the earning revisions on AAPL.  I do not think downward earnings revisions are merited here because the iPad 2 more than handily picks up the slack from an iPhone not being released this summer. (I actually really like the move by Apple, if the chatter is true, and was already factoring it into my assessment as soon as Verizon phone was announced.)  I have not sold Apple because of this, but the potential assault from analyst needs to be washed out. How long it will take is anyone's guess, but I will look to play the weakness. I will act when the trading dynamic of the stock tells me to act.

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