If anyone has been monitoring the tumblr posts, you can see the Day of Rage risk appears to have mitigated. (Still some tension, but not as uncertain as it was on Wed and Thurs.)
Also, some really positive signs in Libya. Right now the EU and other countries no longer validate Gaddafi's rule, but they did not recognize the rebel leadership either. (Only France has recognized the rebel leadership.) I can not see a scenario where a no-fly zone is acted upon toward a country with no recognized leadership. IMO, Clinton's planned meeting with the rebel leadership will be instrumental for US to recognize them, and if we recognize them the rest-of-world should follow suite.
Without air support Gaddafi loses. This is why next week is fairly important, and may provide some serious juice to the market if all works out.
Right now, this looks to be the highest probability scenario to play out. A wild card can always take place, and fuck everything up. But I would not want to be short going into next week.
Some of the winnings can go here :) Red Cross
No comments:
Post a Comment