

Many individual stocks are by no means over bought, some are lightly oversold. Basically, at the moment, they seem like they will go with the flow.
Adding support to 'limited-downside' thesis is the oversold condition of the 10yr yield (or very overbought condition of 10yr note). Fundamentally speaking, a declining 10yr yield suggests a declining US GDP. (This contradicts the recent survey.) The fear amongst the big-boys makes sense. If oil stays above 100 for an extended period of time, it will chip away at the consumer and cause a declining GDP. But the technical set up of the 10yr yield suggests this fear is over done right now.

Despite my belief in the above, we always have to think of all the possibilities. An unlikely scenario, but one that plays off the fear of sustained +$100 oil, may bring the SP500 to the rally's long-term support, the 360SMA.

However I stress this is a very unlikely scenario right now, as it would push stocks of very high cash-flow generating companies to levels that are far to inexpensive, and implies unrealistic geopolitical assumptions. I would have to see real hints of these geopolitical assumptions to think we go to the 360SMA.
If the market heads toward this level, with out hints of the geopolitical assumptions, I will go all in.
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