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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Market Thought... confusion

I see information that confuses me. On the one hand the trigger to protect positions was achieved, however on the other hand strong individual names are consolidated (and in Google's case, oversold).

Attempting to objectively look at the market scenario, a legitimate case can be made that the SP500 will decline, at least to the 62 SMA. (Hence, I did not close out my protection yet.) The SP500 is acting weak around the 14SMA, and the decline to the 14SMA support did not produce the increase in the Vix I was looking for.

I am looking to the Vix to find out when to close out my market protection. I am looking for the Vix to approach 20-21. Or, when I feel the individual names I am protecting (IBM, GS and COST) are at levels that should not merit protection. (I have AAPL and GOOG calls, but they are not protected.)

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