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Sunday, January 3, 2010


Sorry for the confusion. Basically the scenario is this...

The last trading day of the new year saw the Vix spike +8%. That is an impressive spike for the last trading day of the year, along with a flat end-of-year week.

In my opinion, the 8% rise is too strong of a move for a relatively quiet day. It is giving a false sense of fear and negativity. Hence my belief that the final week of the year was a means of consolidation, and the rally should continue.

But the market is a probability game, so despite my belief in a continued rally, if the market continues to decline into next week, the Vix should continue to rapidly rise, indicating a 'buy' signal. That should take place within one or two days.

With a market rally, I still think the Vix will break down to its lower limit to the lower dotted horizontal red line.

To me, this decline in the Vix will indicate market complacency, and that is when protection needs to be implemented. And that is when I plan on purchasing the SPY puts. (The move is independent of time. It could take a day, a week or two weeks.)

With this market move, most likely COST and GS will be in a position to which I will need to sell calls to protect. But confirmation and exact timing will be determined as per the individual charts.

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