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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Adjustment - AAPL

Thanks to what happen to GOOG, and the kind of beating I will take tomorrow, I can no longer leave my AAPL calls un-hedged. I must adjust the strategy. Basically, I will buy a corresponding amount of 190 or 195 Feb Puts (in relation to my Calls), in case there is 'sell the news' activity after they report Monday.

If there is a 'sell the news', AAPL may go to 190, maybe even 185. (GS absolutely crushed earnings, and the analysts are not pricing it a lower compensation -to any degree- in their models, which should INCREASE the equity value in the company, yet it declined massively... I am expecting the 'illogically stupid' at this point.)

I will either enter the position on Friday or Monday. (Apple reports after the market closes on 1/25.)

I would prefer on an up day, and Monday has usually been the up days.

If AAPL sells the news on Tuesday, I will close out the Puts, and re-adjust the calls and remain long. If AAPL rises, I will close out the puts, and assess the long position. (then I probably will have to go seek medical assistance to treat my severe shock :)

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