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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Market Thought... interesting

A broken clock is right twice a day :)... on 8/24 my market thought ('a trade') post indicated a market move to approx 1000 in the SP500. Then on 9/1 ('the fear') I stated the SP500 could go down further.

In the short-short-term, looks like that 1000 level was nice support and the 8/24 post was fairly correct... but I stand by the 9/1 assessment.

At the moment, the market could keep rising, but I think the upside is fairly limited.

There is the top-end resistance on the SP500, but also the VIX eased nicely from its overbought condition, and is almost back to its support. (And this support is what I think is the low end of its potential channel trading.)

I would not short the market just yet, as it is not as overbought and the 10yr yield suggest further very short-term upside. The move is evident in the pre-market SP500 futures.

But as the VIX becomes oversold, and the SP500 gets overbought, I will look to short/protect. (But I think the SP500 maintains its bullishness, just has more consolidation ahead of it.)

Side note fyi... I have gone long Nat. Gas via CHK and KMP... irrespective of where I think the market is going.

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