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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Market Thought... adapt

Traders do not bitch, they adapt and take advantage. My market post 'save the dollar', was me bitching. (although i do strongly believe a stronger dollar is very very needed)

The market has entered a price action period to which I do not agree with. Looking at the charts in the previous post, the fact that the dollar decline facilitates the current leg up in the market is hard to dispute. A closer look indicates that the Sept rise in the SP500 (the 8-9 day rally we are currently in) is directly linked to the decline in the dollar.

To trade this market, I have to adapt to it. So until there is policy change or the Fed starts raising rates (as the inflation and economic data suggest to do) to support a stronger dollar, the economic equation of 'weak dollar/strong market' will not change. This renders the overbought condition useless, and the market becomes a ticking time bomb to sudden and awesome collapses.

My adaptation to the current market action will be primarily that of a day trader. Playing mini pullbacks within the confines of the current move upwards, and taking profits as soon as a bump up (from the mini pullback) is seen.

For these type of day trades I will primarily be playing AAPL, GOOG and GS options. I will indicate the trades when I take them, but these type of trades are extremely risky and dangerous.

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