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Thursday, October 4, 2012

Romney's vs Obama's market

A lot of chatter today giving credit to the positive market move to Romney's good debate performance. Statistics is calling bullshit.

I had the good fortune to interview Statistics today, and this is what he had to say:  (Statistics is a man, sorry ladies :)

me: Statistics what gives? Is today due to Romney or am I being fed bullshit?

Statistics:  How does that bullshit taste? Using Sarcastaball theory, Romney's good debate showing caused the market to rally today. Romney gave us a +0.72% market push.

Saying Romney made the SP500 rally today is like saying Romney made it Rain in NYC today. See, one data point does not make a trend. And the day's move was corrupted by pesky positive data points. Powerful out side forces had an obvious effect on the markets today. The Jobless claims were better than expected (at 8:30am allowing for a higher market open), and the better Factory Order data at 10am was directly followed by a market run.

Looks like there is a direct correlation to the data points and today's intra-day market move. And if the data points caused the rally, then it looks like Obama should get the rally award. (As it was his policies that set the stage for the economic data points.)

Listen Echo, I love data points. The more the merrier. So if we were to look at 4 years worth of market data, we would get a clearer picture. Oh, I don't know, lets start from Jan 21st 2009.

me: Hey, that was President Obama's first day in office!

Statistics: Yup, you are correct. Echo, your a smart guy!

me: on rare occasions :)

Statistics: The SP500 was trading around 840. Today the SP500 closed at 1461. Obama gave us a +42.5% rise in the stock market. Yup, a 42.5% rise over almost a 4yr period.

So if anyone liked today's market gain, thank Obama.  And if anyone liked the last 4 years of the market, they can thank Obama as well.

me: Oh Statistics, its so hard to argue the numbers. Thank you for showing me the bullshit.



  1. I concur with your conclusion - Under most Democratic Presidents the Markets have performed quite well
    What are your thoughts on:
    the Change in the rate of rise of healthcare costs since Partial implementation of his plan...
    the Pension funds and their liabilities...
    the US Manufacturing sector leading the world...

    keep up the Good Work


  2. Thanks KR. As far as the three issues:

    1. not too familiar with the details of the healthcare costs. But I am aware that the plan allowed for increases until the 2013, and from there the costs should be leveled off.

    2. My understanding of these liabilities is that most liabilities are due to the markets underperformance. (The market has produced a 0% return in 10 years.) Over the next year we will start to see the market trade at higher multiples (prob near 15-16), allowing to breach the 10yr cap. With an improved economy and higher market, I expect these liabilities to ease substantially. (With that said, I have heard of chatter where some companies take unethical advantage of the pension funds, but I can't quantify the shadiness.)

    3. As far as official data is concerned, the US still leads in the total dollar-value in manufacturing with high-end, complex manufacturing needing a high level of quality control/assurance. (Although reports have shown that china has overtaken us in march 2011.) And with plenty of web chatter indicating manufacturing re-entering the US (including chinese firms basing into the mid-west for the quality branding) providing a qualitative positive sentiment.