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Friday, June 24, 2011


As of this morning, the Greeks should have enough votes (3) to get the austerity measures passed. (There have been two potential defections in two days.)

As highlighted in a previous post, I think there is two potential outcomes here:

1. passes, markets rally

2. does not pass, Greece defaults and hopefully the European banks are immediately infused with capital to mitigate the contagion risk. I think this scenario will still cause the SP500 to push toward 1200.

The vote is taking place June 28th or 29th. There is just too much uncertainty to bet one way on this. I took out SPY put protection for the current positions that I have.

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