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Monday, June 6, 2011

Market Thought... perspective

I knew I would have to keep re-posting the 'summer of discontent' post throughout the summer (and that's the reason I titled it "summer of..." :)

Cramers show-opener rant, imo, epitomizes the big-boy mentality right now. And rightfully so, concerns are legitimate, but the only new economic data point that changes the bullish thesis is last month's job growth.  One month does not make a trend, but there are no bullish catalysts right now.  Earnings season has past, and the psychology is 'blah'. (Although I disagree that estimates have to be cut. I understand the top-down approach would inspire such a thesis, but the bottom-up approach simply does not suggest a earnings reduction. At least not at the companies I follow.)

Instead of bitching about it, I prefer to take advantage.

Since the beginning of May, from the May high (1370) of the current rally, the market is down 5.8%. Since last week's ADP report the market is down 4.1%.  The rate of decline for one week is too fast. I am looking to short the SPY for protection (132 or 133 Aug Puts) when the SP500 approaches 1305. (I would normally be far more active day-trading protection with this market, but I still am lacking real-time tick-by-tick at the office, and that closes me off to intra-day indicators and shift in market psychology. It does suck so very much.)

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