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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

hypothetical note on IBM

Currently IBM is at 170. If one was to assume IBM simply mimics the SP500 performance going forward, assuming austerity passes, and the market continues to rally, and reaches 1370 again, IBM should see a market price of 180.

The math:

To get to 1370, year's high, the market needs to move about 5.9% from current level ([1370-1293]/1293). If we apply the same appreciation on to IBM from the current level, we get 180 (1.059*170).

This also jives with forward looking accelerated earnings 2 quarters out, although the above market correlation would suggest IBM sees a higher multiple.  A multiple around high 14s or low 15s, which is very doable.

Just throwing the thought out there. (I will look to actively trade IBM w/my current position between 172-178. In the mean time, I am not touching it until it passes 172.)

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