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Monday, May 23, 2011

Market Thought... update on technicals

The market started to cave.  Here is a breakdown of the support levels.
The market is breaking from the daily 62SMA.  There are levels of support near 1300 via the daily, along with the 150SMA near 1280.

There is added support near 1300 via the weekly 28SMA. 

There is some strong support around 1300, and given the level of uncertainty, the level may be tested.  I am still uneasy shorting this market given the already established multiple contraction.

Although, if the European Debt restructuring is handled improperly, and the US debt ceiling is not raised, the current trading dynamic of this market will be shot to hell and a new one will emerge.  This will cause me to sell all my positions, and look to be very negative as systemic issues will be abundant.

The indications at the moment suggest Greece will privatize assets, although the EU official touting the privatization will be better-then-expected publicly admitted to lying to ease markets. So his word is pretty much worthless.  Regardless, any type of privatization will facilitate the pseudo (soft/hard) restructuring of Greece, potentially containing the issue.

And Congress likes to keep Americans in suspense. Although I would love to see a constructive debate, and ultimately progress. (Not a half-ass debate where one sides starts sucking their thumbs, and refuses to discuss 'one' area of the debate.)

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