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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Market Thought... support

Since the Market Thought post 'contradictions', the market looks to have found a footing. (As I hit publish on this post I am sure the futures will tank:)

Basically, transports remained solid, but the Semis tested their upper support level, and bounced.

With the small bounce, the market slightly reversed course. 1300 seemed inevitable, but now it looks to be staging a slow and steady push. 

The 62SMA, which should have been acting as short-term resistance is not.  In the short-term, this may suggest we re-test 1340.

A part of me believes we will still be in an annoying market, until the uncertainties of the debt ceiling and the Greece report are provided, where direction is dictated by political theater and EU rumors. But today's action showed promise of a deviation.  Maybe the big-boys saw Goldman's 2012 SP500 eps estimates of $104, and second guessed their selling. (Slap a PE range of 14-15, which is historically low, we have a 2012 SP500 range of 1450-1560. And we are approaching that time of the year where the big-boys start pricing in 2012 estimates.)  After all, cutting through all the bullshit, the market is a function of profitability, nothing more.

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