As per the technicals, POT has turned with support near 55, and should continue its test to the negative trend line.
I added with the AM weakness.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
ag numbers
The head line Ag numbers are bearish. This is allowing POT to decline today. (This is also good for the short-term food inflation, which is good for the economy.) But the macro-trend for Ag is still very much intact, and the sector will continue to need fertilizers/potash at a demanding pace.
As per the technicals, POT has turned with support near 55, and should continue its test to the negative trend line.
I added with the AM weakness.
As per the technicals, POT has turned with support near 55, and should continue its test to the negative trend line.
I added with the AM weakness.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Market Thought... normalcy
Looks like the 'expectations' post was pretty good. Greece voted in the austerity, and the SP500 closed above the 28/32 SMAs.
IMO, the market is now transitioning to make these the support for a positive trend. We may see some follow through, but the 62SMA should be resistance. The market seems a bit spent here, after the last few rallying days, and we may have to wait for earnings to act as the fuel. (Unless the jobless claims tomorrow are kick-ass, or the macro economic data provides the fuel. Reversing the 'top-down' debbie-downers.)
About a month ago I highlighted the major systemic threats that could derail the market in my 'no boom-boom?' post. For the time being, investors have a sense of normalcy from the various systemic-events that place fear in the market. The only real uncertainty left, at least until Europe festers again, is the US debt ceiling. (Even though Europe is festering, I think very real progress is being made and the structural/productivity improvements, that should have happened years ago, will make Europe a very interesting place for investors and make the Euro a legitimate global currency.)
The action in the 10yr also suggest the biased is now toward the equity markets again.
Obviously it is in a negative trend, but the action is encouraging toward a shift in attitude.
About a month ago I highlighted the major systemic threats that could derail the market in my 'no boom-boom?' post. For the time being, investors have a sense of normalcy from the various systemic-events that place fear in the market. The only real uncertainty left, at least until Europe festers again, is the US debt ceiling. (Even though Europe is festering, I think very real progress is being made and the structural/productivity improvements, that should have happened years ago, will make Europe a very interesting place for investors and make the Euro a legitimate global currency.)
The action in the 10yr also suggest the biased is now toward the equity markets again.
some thoughts
Austerity passed, so I covered my protection and entered ATI in the am. Currently letting my positions ride. I want to enter POT, but I will wait for the crop report tomorrow. (I am thinking there maybe a 'sell the news' on the report. If there is I will add on the decline. If not, and it rallies to its negative trend line resistance, around 59, I will unload my current position there, then actively trade around that resistance level.)
And just a side note, I normally would have day-traded some AAPL with the AM weakness, but with the lack of real time, and crazy emotions the stock has already given me, I refrained. Apple should base here for the next couple of trading days due to the resistance highlighted in the previous post, but as the quarter's end approaches I am sure a bunch of big-boys do not want to be short this stock.
And just a side note, I normally would have day-traded some AAPL with the AM weakness, but with the lack of real time, and crazy emotions the stock has already given me, I refrained. Apple should base here for the next couple of trading days due to the resistance highlighted in the previous post, but as the quarter's end approaches I am sure a bunch of big-boys do not want to be short this stock.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Trade... ATI
If the austerity passes, ATI is setting up for a continued run. With financial stability in place, aerospace will continue to shine. The aerospace and defense index is on the verge of a breakout from its current negativity.
The resistance is from the SMAs, and once it breaches, the PPA should rally to 20.50.
In sympathy, ATI has bounced off its daily 200SMA.
Obviously ATI has some resistance of its own between 64-66, but with the continued aerospace boom, ATI should test its upper range by year-end. With a passing austerity, I will make an initial entry of the Oct 62.5 calls. (I will be actively trading it around its potential resistance.)
In sympathy, ATI has bounced off its daily 200SMA.
hypothetical note on IBM
Currently IBM is at 170. If one was to assume IBM simply mimics the SP500 performance going forward, assuming austerity passes, and the market continues to rally, and reaches 1370 again, IBM should see a market price of 180.
The math:
To get to 1370, year's high, the market needs to move about 5.9% from current level ([1370-1293]/1293). If we apply the same appreciation on to IBM from the current level, we get 180 (1.059*170).
This also jives with forward looking accelerated earnings 2 quarters out, although the above market correlation would suggest IBM sees a higher multiple. A multiple around high 14s or low 15s, which is very doable.
Just throwing the thought out there. (I will look to actively trade IBM w/my current position between 172-178. In the mean time, I am not touching it until it passes 172.)
The math:
To get to 1370, year's high, the market needs to move about 5.9% from current level ([1370-1293]/1293). If we apply the same appreciation on to IBM from the current level, we get 180 (1.059*170).
This also jives with forward looking accelerated earnings 2 quarters out, although the above market correlation would suggest IBM sees a higher multiple. A multiple around high 14s or low 15s, which is very doable.
Just throwing the thought out there. (I will look to actively trade IBM w/my current position between 172-178. In the mean time, I am not touching it until it passes 172.)
Technical note on AAPL
When Apple breaks the 340-345 resistance level, seen within the negative trend line of the daily and SMA points on the weekly charts, it will most likely go to 360 quickly.
Aside from the technicals intimidating who ever is short right now, AAPL is also looking at accelerated EPS growth this quarter and the next. (Meaning, rule-of-thumb valuations are in Apple long's favor as well.)
The only thing the shorts potentially have at this point is a 'no-vote' on austerity or the health of Steve Jobs. The former is looking more promising, especially with the efforts the French, German and Italian banks making an effort to have a soft-restructuring. As for the later, to anyone shorting AAPL for that trade, my thoughts remain the same, Fuck you.
The only thing the shorts potentially have at this point is a 'no-vote' on austerity or the health of Steve Jobs. The former is looking more promising, especially with the efforts the French, German and Italian banks making an effort to have a soft-restructuring. As for the later, to anyone shorting AAPL for that trade, my thoughts remain the same, Fuck you.
Monday, June 27, 2011
stop-start chatter gets louder
A great info/expectations coming from Johnson Controls on stop-start, which is subsequently really good for AXPW.ob.
Reuters Article highlights:
1. Globally, start-stop will be used in 52 percent to 55 percent of new vehicles built in 2016, up from 8 percent in 2010, Johnson Controls told analysts
2. Shutting down the engine by this method can save 5 percent to 12 percent of fuel and polluting emissions in conventional gasoline-powered vehicles
3. nearly 25 million vehicles will be built with the advanced batteries allowing start-stop in 2016, up from 7 million vehicles in 2011
4. overall start-stop battery sales will be 35 million within five years, including batteries not put into new vehicles
5. advanced batteries will yield three times the margin of more conventional lead-acid batteries [here is where Axion will shine]
6. expansion of start-stop technology is driving demand for newer batteries, called absorbed glass mat (but the BMW presentation showed that AGM w/PbC has far better performance then AGM alone)
7. "In this competition, start-stop has gained share because consumers perceive real value from the application and are moving it forward up the adoption curve," Kim Metcalf-Kupres, vice president of global sales, marketing and strategy
8. Brian Johnson, analyst with Barclays Capital, said the 25 million batteries in new vehicles by 2016 estimate by JCI is up from the company's earlier statements of 17 million.
Years ago I was in Great Adventure. I went to a concession booth to get some food. The two main areas had really long lines, but there was this one guy in the booth near an obscure window on the side of the booth, who appears to just be waiting. I took the chance to by-pass the long ass lines, and place my order from this obscure window. Once others started to see the guy actually process my order, the obscure window was no longer vacant. The mob came. This same feeling just came over me, while reading this article, with respect to AXPW.ob.
Everyday that passes, the increasing chatter makes me more excited about Axion's prospects.
Reuters Article highlights:
1. Globally, start-stop will be used in 52 percent to 55 percent of new vehicles built in 2016, up from 8 percent in 2010, Johnson Controls told analysts
2. Shutting down the engine by this method can save 5 percent to 12 percent of fuel and polluting emissions in conventional gasoline-powered vehicles
3. nearly 25 million vehicles will be built with the advanced batteries allowing start-stop in 2016, up from 7 million vehicles in 2011
4. overall start-stop battery sales will be 35 million within five years, including batteries not put into new vehicles
5. advanced batteries will yield three times the margin of more conventional lead-acid batteries [here is where Axion will shine]
6. expansion of start-stop technology is driving demand for newer batteries, called absorbed glass mat (but the BMW presentation showed that AGM w/PbC has far better performance then AGM alone)
7. "In this competition, start-stop has gained share because consumers perceive real value from the application and are moving it forward up the adoption curve," Kim Metcalf-Kupres, vice president of global sales, marketing and strategy
8. Brian Johnson, analyst with Barclays Capital, said the 25 million batteries in new vehicles by 2016 estimate by JCI is up from the company's earlier statements of 17 million.
Years ago I was in Great Adventure. I went to a concession booth to get some food. The two main areas had really long lines, but there was this one guy in the booth near an obscure window on the side of the booth, who appears to just be waiting. I took the chance to by-pass the long ass lines, and place my order from this obscure window. Once others started to see the guy actually process my order, the obscure window was no longer vacant. The mob came. This same feeling just came over me, while reading this article, with respect to AXPW.ob.
Everyday that passes, the increasing chatter makes me more excited about Axion's prospects.
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