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Sunday, June 26, 2016

Market Thought... Political Risk causing real economic hiccups

The implications of brexit will already be severe. The currency moves alone will mess with all multi-national revenues. The companies will also not wait from the Leave camp to straighten their shit out. Finance jobs are already leaving, so are auto jobs. The Gov has two years to leave, barring parliment votes against the leave. Because of all the complex issues, and the seemingly lack of preparation (and flat out lies) from the Leave camp, the UK looks to be in for a lost 2-10 years.

The market seems to be punishing the Leave camp, and will continue to do so, especially since a slow down awaits. But the markets are not trading like the EU will disintegrate, and i tend to believe the market on this one. The vix is simply not as high as the past concerns with a disintegrated EU. 

No question the EU has flaws, but it was easer to see a country with out the Euro vote against the EU vs a country that has adopted the Euro. Example: Greece. A country's people suffered the most of all member states, yet they chose to stay.

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