(Apparently there is no meeting, or rather people just put things on the calendar and like to waste time.)
Here is more detail around my current action. Along with my previous post, I kept thinking about a post I wrote after I got back from my honeymoon, 'maybe, maybe not'. The thesis of this post is dead on. So if we are in a situation where the market multiple will guide the market (while facilitated by the technicals), I can not ignore it.
Within the 'Links' section (upper right corner, below the pic) within 'forward PE', I incorporated a market range based on the estimates that I have for 2011. The multiple is between 14-15.
I will not ignore the technical set ups. This is just a baseline to gauge where we are with respect to market expectations. Barring a one-off event, right now, the SP500 is still below the low-end, and waiting for the proper technical set up to trigger a real correction.
Basically, the way I am now protecting myself is to sell of overbought names (ie AAPL, MF), and hold onto consolidated names (ie PBR, ATI, IBM, thinking of adding RHT.)
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Market Thought... a ton of thinking
This is going to be a quick post, got a meeting, more detail later.
I took a hard look at what I was protecting via my positions, and realized that most were not over bought, and that I am seriously considering adding more of these names. With this conclusion, I realized I was not protecting anything other than a few over bought positions.
So, I sold the over bought names and closed out my protection. This leaves me in a pretty cash heavy position, and flexibility to act quickly when I want to purchase more. (I really want to add more IBM, ATI and PBR.)
I will still short the market, as a trade, when the VIX is near the lower horizontal line from the chart I posted yesterday.
I took a hard look at what I was protecting via my positions, and realized that most were not over bought, and that I am seriously considering adding more of these names. With this conclusion, I realized I was not protecting anything other than a few over bought positions.
So, I sold the over bought names and closed out my protection. This leaves me in a pretty cash heavy position, and flexibility to act quickly when I want to purchase more. (I really want to add more IBM, ATI and PBR.)
I will still short the market, as a trade, when the VIX is near the lower horizontal line from the chart I posted yesterday.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
re-positioned protection
I repositioned my market protection. Closed out of the 127 Feb SPY puts, and added the same number of the 129 Feb SPY puts. This effectively increases my market protection, but not significantly.
The SP500/Vix overlay has lowered and entered a position to which triggered the re-positioning. If/when the blue (vix) chart approaches the lower blue horizontal line, I will add to the 129 puts.
Still not selling IBM. The 'stranglers' can prey it off of my cold dead hands. Its too inexpensive here. The 'forward PE' in the top right corner clearly shows 149 being the low-end. And that is at a PE lower than the current trailing PE. I will not sell it below 150, no way.
The SP500/Vix overlay has lowered and entered a position to which triggered the re-positioning. If/when the blue (vix) chart approaches the lower blue horizontal line, I will add to the 129 puts.
Still not selling IBM. The 'stranglers' can prey it off of my cold dead hands. Its too inexpensive here. The 'forward PE' in the top right corner clearly shows 149 being the low-end. And that is at a PE lower than the current trailing PE. I will not sell it below 150, no way.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
A look at Gold
Bunch of chatter on Gold today because of its decline, and rightfully so. The GLD is testing its daily trend/support.
Along with the potential head-and-shoulder taking place, the set up looks to want to break down. At least for the short-term.
With the daily trend broken, the next stop is the support via the weekly. The weekly 32 SMA has acted as support in the past, and the chances are high it will do so during this correction.
At the very least, a nice bounce from the wkly 32SMA should be expected. I may play DGP when this happens, but only for the pop.
(I am from the school of thought the world is getting functional again. With a functioning world, the demand for Gold declines.)
Along with the potential head-and-shoulder taking place, the set up looks to want to break down. At least for the short-term.With the daily trend broken, the next stop is the support via the weekly. The weekly 32 SMA has acted as support in the past, and the chances are high it will do so during this correction.
At the very least, a nice bounce from the wkly 32SMA should be expected. I may play DGP when this happens, but only for the pop.(I am from the school of thought the world is getting functional again. With a functioning world, the demand for Gold declines.)
Trades - AAPL
Sold off my AAPL positions. Waiting on a re-entry. (Still very inexpensive, but this is a technical trade, and my 330 was achieved.
The market still looks like it can move upward for a few more days. I am still waiting for the VIX/SP500 overlay to trigger added protection.
In the mean time, I am chipping away at my long positions. (I will not sell any IBM until the VIX/SP500 chart triggers me to sell some or it trades above 150. It is just too inexpensive below 150.)
Waiting on 59-60 for ATI. (But this one can move nicely in the coarse of 6months, especially in an aerospace bull market.)
The market still looks like it can move upward for a few more days. I am still waiting for the VIX/SP500 overlay to trigger added protection.
In the mean time, I am chipping away at my long positions. (I will not sell any IBM until the VIX/SP500 chart triggers me to sell some or it trades above 150. It is just too inexpensive below 150.)
Waiting on 59-60 for ATI. (But this one can move nicely in the coarse of 6months, especially in an aerospace bull market.)
Sunday, January 2, 2011
anonymous no more
With the new year, comes identity.
My name is Themistoklis Zacharatos (but everyone can still call me echo :) I am currently a manager at Pfizer Pharmaceuticals. My group project-manages manufacturing discrepancies for Prevnar. Basically we analyze manufacturing issues to find a data-driven root cause, proper corrective actions and assess product quality. (The mentality of trading and assessing risk is actually pretty complimentary to the job function, and has helped me move rapidly upward within the organization. Even after the threat of termination.)
In university I wanted to learn about molecular electronics and alternative energies, hence studied Chemistry and Chemical Engineering; but I always had an obsession with current events and the markets. So I read, watched and listened, then read some more, educating myself on economics and the fundamentals of the markets.
I had the misfortune, or fortune, to graduate university (New York University and Stevens Institute of Technology) during the 2002 recession. Despite graduating with honors, the job market was so crappy and demoralizing, the lack of opportunity en-grained in me a sense of self-dependency. Since 2002, I have been continuously observing current events, attempting to understand their effects and attempting to monetize the understanding. I created a methodology that gives me a relative independence. (I use ‘relative’ because I am now married :)
I am hoping the lack of anonymity will give the blog more credibility, and eventually be a communication forum for a partnership. (The partnership will be predicated on complete transparency, so it is only fitting that I remove the anonymity.)
The information on this blog has always been (and will always be) about what I would do or what I see within the markets, stocks or events. It is not advice. I am proud of the quality of information given on this blog. (Although I do recognize the grammatical errors and typos are a bit much at times. But this is a consequence of not sacrificing quality on my work performance for Pfizer, and ensuring the trade executions are correct.)
Its a pleasure to introduce myself to all of you :)
happy trading
theo.zacharatos@gmail.com
My name is Themistoklis Zacharatos (but everyone can still call me echo :) I am currently a manager at Pfizer Pharmaceuticals. My group project-manages manufacturing discrepancies for Prevnar. Basically we analyze manufacturing issues to find a data-driven root cause, proper corrective actions and assess product quality. (The mentality of trading and assessing risk is actually pretty complimentary to the job function, and has helped me move rapidly upward within the organization. Even after the threat of termination.)
In university I wanted to learn about molecular electronics and alternative energies, hence studied Chemistry and Chemical Engineering; but I always had an obsession with current events and the markets. So I read, watched and listened, then read some more, educating myself on economics and the fundamentals of the markets.
I had the misfortune, or fortune, to graduate university (New York University and Stevens Institute of Technology) during the 2002 recession. Despite graduating with honors, the job market was so crappy and demoralizing, the lack of opportunity en-grained in me a sense of self-dependency. Since 2002, I have been continuously observing current events, attempting to understand their effects and attempting to monetize the understanding. I created a methodology that gives me a relative independence. (I use ‘relative’ because I am now married :)
I am hoping the lack of anonymity will give the blog more credibility, and eventually be a communication forum for a partnership. (The partnership will be predicated on complete transparency, so it is only fitting that I remove the anonymity.)
The information on this blog has always been (and will always be) about what I would do or what I see within the markets, stocks or events. It is not advice. I am proud of the quality of information given on this blog. (Although I do recognize the grammatical errors and typos are a bit much at times. But this is a consequence of not sacrificing quality on my work performance for Pfizer, and ensuring the trade executions are correct.)
Its a pleasure to introduce myself to all of you :)
happy trading
theo.zacharatos@gmail.com
2010 Timeless Portfolio performance
The 2010 performance for the 'timeless portfolio', as indicated via the link to the right under 'Links', has come to a close.
With one adjustment toward the end of the year, the 2010 performance was 22.8%.
KMP: +14.4%
BKE: +39.6%
IBM: +16.9%
F: +43.0%
BGCP: +5.7%
(NAT was exchanged for BGCP on 12/08/10. NAT had a -5.9% loss during the time held.)
The actual performance exceeded the high-end estimate of 13%. (The high-end estimate can be observed within the 'timeless portfolio' link under the tab 'high'.)
With one adjustment toward the end of the year, the 2010 performance was 22.8%.
KMP: +14.4%
BKE: +39.6%
IBM: +16.9%
F: +43.0%
BGCP: +5.7%
(NAT was exchanged for BGCP on 12/08/10. NAT had a -5.9% loss during the time held.)
The actual performance exceeded the high-end estimate of 13%. (The high-end estimate can be observed within the 'timeless portfolio' link under the tab 'high'.)
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