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Monday, May 17, 2010

Market Thought... insomnia's a bitch

Tired all day, yet with the head on the pillow I'm as awake as a 5yr old on a Coca-cola binge...

The futures indicate the markets are heading down. We are testing the weekly SMA supports (via the 28 and 32 SMA). These have acted as support before, but judging by the sheer negativity I do not know if the support will hold. This has had me playing out scenario after scenario in my head.

With no support, the SP500 will most likely test the 200SMA again.

The SP500 can find itself range bounce, having massive volatility induced churning (fancy for channel trading) from approximately 1050 or so - to - 1150 or so (or maybe even 1220ish).

With valuations to where they are, and knowing that hedgies are under-invested, I can realistically see the SP500 churning from 1100 to 1200. This can also be supported by the charts if the 200SMA is not breached downward. (The final churn will come when the 320SMA reaches the low point of that channel. This would indicate the rally after the 320SMA touch would signal a buy and hold as the upper part of the range will be breached.)

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