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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Market Thought... i don't see it

I just do not see where this consistent fear is coming from. I hear the noise of potential threats, I see the uncertainty, I understand we are in need of a market correction, but I do not see a legitimate fear. The fear seems too manufactured. (Remember, when everyone is expecting something to happen, usually that 'thing' does not happen.)

With the above stated, I do not have an inside eye as to what is going on internally in Europe. My assessment is purely based on media reports. Maybe there is a real concern, but the reports I see do not corroborate the threat. I see ton of opinion, but it all lacks substance. Given that I am under the thought that European countries will get their houses in order, and the $1T will be sufficient to facilitate the change. Just like the US state and local municipalities are cutting back as well.

My market thesis has not changed from my "insomnia's a bitch" post. Below are the charts that back up the thesis. The daily indicates the 200SMA support level at about 1100.

The weekly indicates the support around 1050, which is supported by the daily 320SMA.

I do not think the 1050 level will be seen unless there is a legitimate threat. If there is a real reason to fear, then the VIX will rise sharply. This should correlate to the SP500 declining to the 320SMA, and the VIX reaching the most recent SP500 peak via the VIX-SP500 multi-year chart overlay.

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