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Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market Thought... clusterfuck

Too many things went wrong today, obviously.

On the technical front, the markets are not broken yet. Despite the massive move, the computer issues negates much of what happened. It caused too much of a domino via the black-box-boys. (Exchange regulators need to adopt NYSE rules, period.)

In fact, the VIX indicates a low point for the market. The VIX is trading at its upper band range.

On the fundamental front, stocks are not badly priced via earnings. They simply are not.

State and local cuts at government levels, globally, were already taking place before this decline. These cuts will continue to occur, but there is a business capital expenditure cycle that is ready to kick in. Basically, I do not think this 'sovereign debt' risk will impact earnings as this market suggests.

The ECB did jack-shit today, but Andy Busch did indicate on Kudlow that the ECB should act after the German vote tomorrow. (video, last two min) I tend to pay attention to him regarding global affairs.

If the European Union and the ECB want the Euro to be dissolved, then they need do nothing. But if no leadership develops in Greece, someone will take it, as Hitler did. IMO, this is the worst case scenario, but a possible one if nothing happens. I think/pray Europe ultimately will prevent that.

As uncertainty continues, especially when there is uncertainty at the big-boy level, stocks will continue to be discounted. (And there is HUGE uncertainty at the big-boy levels, just turn on the TV and listen.)


  1. Thanks Echo!

    Greatly appreciate the VIX inflection pattern and you sharing it with us!

    Your site is always a great place of reason and calm in a storm...

    Still, I didn't sleep so well last night... but your chart and the futures volume heps.

  2. I didn't get much sleep either. I wish there was more leadership. Germany did its part, but the ECB is still lacking.