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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Market Thought... oh boy

I'm gonna take a nice paper hit tomorrow. After buying GS a day before this news comes out, I so feel like the turkey :)

Dubai's situation is obviously taking down markets, and we are seeing it in translate in the futures market.

Anyway... enough bitching, and lets look at the situation.

The most telling aspect was the bond market. The bond markets were telegraphing 'something' over the past two weeks w/the short-term yields Treasuries going negative, and the 10yr yield declining. That 'something' was most likely 'Dubai'.

I think there will be a ton, a ton, of over-reactions regarding this. I will monitor tomorrow very closely, but from what I can tell I do not think there is a legitimate domino effect scenario from Dubai World wanting to reorganize its debts.

It is just like any other large company wanting to renegotiate, or going bankrupt. Obviously the ripple effect is there via the banks exposed to this mess, but their assets (other than real-estate) are real.

Out side of GS (what a pisser LOL), PWR, CHK and TBT; my cash position is still quite large (approximately 60%). Depending on the action, and certain price levels, tomorrow maybe my 'black friday' where I can buy up names I wanted to re-enter.

Will be looking at KMP, SQM, AAPL and GOOG, among others.

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