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Monday, November 23, 2009

Market Thought... maybe, just maybe

The market might be able to move higher from here. During this unraveling of the credit bubble, the Vix has been trading at an elevated level since July 07 to present. The high in the Vix is obvious, but the low (in this elevated trading range) is not so obvious.

From the recent rally the low end was around 21-22, but if we were to take a step back, the low is lower.

This version of the chart suggests the market can rally to +1150 given the VIX declines to the high teens.
(The Vix is the moving Blue Line, the SP500 is the moving Black. The Dotted Red horizontal line is the very low-end for the Vix under the overlay chart condition, the Blue horizontal line is the low end Vix support so far for this current market rally. The Solid Red horizontal line is the top end resistance for the Vix.)
The Vix has entered its low end, and that would trigger some selling. I think a retest of the very low end is very possible.
I will let the pundits create a reason for the move upward ;), but the possibility of a push upward is not out of the question.

1 comment:

  1. Curious situation with BKE, which seems like a sensible holding for all the reasons you've cited. You may know that GS recently issued a mysterious Sell on them, shortly ahead of earnings that met estimates. The stock's been under pressure since, standing now around 28--with a 30% short position!

    Your astute comments would be much appreciated as always.