Added Ford today to the Timeless Portfolio (T.P.).
I have designated a specific amount of cash (typically not utilized when trading) to be used for my T.P. This way a cash load is being utilized.
I have already purchased the first set of NAT, KMP, IBM and now F. Waiting on BKE. All these were initial positions. Will buy the full amount with a declining market.
(IMO, the SP500 may trade up to 1210ish, then correct. Upon that correction, I will utilize the remaining allocated cash for the T.P.)
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Natty Gas
Talk about a decline. For the brave, Nat. Gas is currently at a light support, but I am of the belief it goes to toward the mid 3 support depicted in the chart.
If that happens, I believe CHK will head toward 20. (But make no mistake, fundamentally and when looking a 6-12months out, current levels are very attractive.)
I will enter (probably pretty heavy) if the low 20s are seen in CHK.
If that happens, I believe CHK will head toward 20. (But make no mistake, fundamentally and when looking a 6-12months out, current levels are very attractive.)
I will enter (probably pretty heavy) if the low 20s are seen in CHK.
Eased up on AAPL
I eased up more on AAPL. Utilizing this strength to sell most of my call options.
Everyone and their mother will be selling AAPL prior to the iPad sale, as Cramer and other pundits already instilled the thought throughout the investment community. What has me in the belief of 'sell-the-news' is that the current iPad demand is predicated on inventory builds to the Apple stores, Best Buy and pre-orders. The initial sales figures may not be as high as expectations have gotten.
None-the-less, as AAPL is consolidating or selling on the news, I will be a buyer of the Jan 2011 calls. (The strike price will depend on the level AAPL starts selling off.)
Everyone and their mother will be selling AAPL prior to the iPad sale, as Cramer and other pundits already instilled the thought throughout the investment community. What has me in the belief of 'sell-the-news' is that the current iPad demand is predicated on inventory builds to the Apple stores, Best Buy and pre-orders. The initial sales figures may not be as high as expectations have gotten.
None-the-less, as AAPL is consolidating or selling on the news, I will be a buyer of the Jan 2011 calls. (The strike price will depend on the level AAPL starts selling off.)
China in the Back of my Head
Over the past few months I have been noticing a consistent trend within media articles regarding the level of aggressiveness China is taking. The latest was their response to a very responsible comment from Australia's PM. (article)
For a country with the second largest economy in the world, such aggressiveness is not responsible.
As a matter of fact, as a country's role increases with respect to world affairs, people (in general, all over the world) expect more from this country. They expect a level of charity, a level of human rights and sophistication. (Just like an average person entering the public eye becoming a celebrity. Whether he/she likes it or not, they are now a role model and should act accordingly. But we know that doesn't always happen so smoothly.)
Their new found aggressiveness is in the back of my head as potential to de-rail global stability, let alone the global economy.
For a country with the second largest economy in the world, such aggressiveness is not responsible.
As a matter of fact, as a country's role increases with respect to world affairs, people (in general, all over the world) expect more from this country. They expect a level of charity, a level of human rights and sophistication. (Just like an average person entering the public eye becoming a celebrity. Whether he/she likes it or not, they are now a role model and should act accordingly. But we know that doesn't always happen so smoothly.)
Their new found aggressiveness is in the back of my head as potential to de-rail global stability, let alone the global economy.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Keep an Eye on GOOG China
Apparently Google publishes when there are issues within China. This is a great way for investors in the US to monitor (at least at some level) Google's activity in China.
Mainland China service availability
Mainland China service availability
Thoughts on IBM
Itching to go heavy IBM here, at least a heavy double up. There are plenty of reasons to wait, especially this week. Considering the Fed will stop its MBS purchasing program.
But I really like IBM here. It is consolidated, and looks to want to move. My only hesitation is above, in fear of the boarder market reaction.
I will add, then wait for the market reaction. Will continue to add if IBM declines further. (Not expecting 127 to be broken.)
But I really like IBM here. It is consolidated, and looks to want to move. My only hesitation is above, in fear of the boarder market reaction.
I will add, then wait for the market reaction. Will continue to add if IBM declines further. (Not expecting 127 to be broken.)
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Trade Volume Going Up
World trade volume will apparently be up big. At least that is what the WTO says. (article) If this is the case, and I certainly believe it to be so, the best play are the transports. There is a reason why UNP is up so much, and staying lofty. But after the rails, the best play is NAT. The growth is not yet reflected in the stock price. That could be due to the general increase in number of vessels coming on line, but that should not alter their business model much. (management's letter)
I typically look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to get a feel of what is happening with global trade. The number of ships that have been coming on line over the last two years may have capped the index until there is a equilibrium achieved with the increased capacity. None the less, the suezmax tanker market appears stable, as per management, but so does the BDI supporting the claim.
And since NAT redistributes their increased revenue to shareholders, that above continues to add to the thesis for NAT as a member to the 'timeless portfolio'.
I typically look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to get a feel of what is happening with global trade. The number of ships that have been coming on line over the last two years may have capped the index until there is a equilibrium achieved with the increased capacity. None the less, the suezmax tanker market appears stable, as per management, but so does the BDI supporting the claim.
And since NAT redistributes their increased revenue to shareholders, that above continues to add to the thesis for NAT as a member to the 'timeless portfolio'.
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