Trades... AAPL, FB, GS and QCOM

"Its the final count down." -Rocky soundtrack :)

AAPL - Regardless of fiscal cliff issues, the stock should not be below its weekly trend line near the mid 500s. (For many fundamental reasons.)

FB - It bounced off the 38SMA fairly nicely due to the Instragram negativity, then Facebook's comments on the usage number and analyst upgrades. I was looking to go heavy between 22-24, but the strength during yesterday's intraday action pushed me into an initial position near mid 25.

Looking for FB to retest the 28 level going into its report. (May unload there. Haven't decided yet.)

GS - Looking to get back into GS near 123 or the 5SMA on the weekly. (Although it can test 120s, as there is strong SMA support in that area on the daily chart.)  If GS breaks 128, the weekly 150SMA, GS may enter a new trading dynamic. Maybe a dynamic guided by earnings, not book value.

QCOM - It briefly tested the low 60s area, where I wanted to take a position, I didn't have the balls to take it on due to the fiscal cliff uncertainty. (Thought I could get it near the high 59s.)

As I was writing this the markets just went positive on deal talks. Not getting caught up in the intraday market pops. Already have AAPL and FB. Looking to take positions if there is a sell off in GS and QCOM to desired levels.

Market Thought... a standing ovation for doing nothing

Turns our Boehner got a standing ovation from House republicans. Awesome to know other members of the house have their heads so far up each other's asses that they completely lack the pulse of the people they are serving. A standing ovation for doing nothing! Nothing.

I am all for a great debate, but for fuck sake, when its time to act, act.

With the continued stupidity, like standing ovations for 'nothingness', the republican party will push their own worst-case scenario: the inability to stop the democrats in 2014.

Anyway...

The markets are looking pretty good to me. Fear has spiked, yet the index is holding up fairly well.

The technicals suggest the fear is near its high. Obviously the market's current situation is driven by politicians (that would rather applaud the act of jerking-off vs dating the prom queen), so any technical assessment is pretty pointless.

Regardless of politicians, the fundamentals always matter.  By the end of Q4, the SP500 is projected to produce a yearly eps of $98-99. Slap a 13-15 trailing multiple on the eps, and the SP500 can potentially trade between 1300-1500.  However, if certain conditions can be maintained, the SP500 my start to trade with a trailing multiple above 15 (for the first time in years). The conditions include:

1. alleviating the cliff concern.

2. alleviating a debt ceiling (US debt default concern) in Feb. (I can give a rats ass about any other rating agency down grade of US debt. The concept of these rating agencies is bullshit.)

3. ECB continues to stabilize the EU banks.

4. US jobs data continues to be strong. (This also suggests the US and Global economy remains relatively robust, along with corporate profits.)

If the above are in check, and China keeps avoiding a hard landing, I do not see why the market will trade with a trailing multiple below 15.  We should start to see a rotation from bond funds into equities, and an increase in multiples. The SP500 may start to trade with a trailing multiple above 15.

Market Thought... fear of heights

Looks like the market got a renewed fear of heights. Now the market is adjusting with the Vix spike, with a very light volume day, suggests a protection is being taken.

I am expecting a jump in the vix to approach high 20s/low 30s from 'the cliff' issues.  (I get this number from factoring out the huge outsized VIX moves that were attributed to EU fiscal shock issues.)

Plan on covering the SPY short near 1400.  Out side of the cliff issues, the economy really does look to be improving. Despite the mixed retail data (great online sales vs blah numbers Mastercard), the job numbers (if viewed as a leading indicator) are looking very good.

Happy Christmas

Enjoy the Schweddy Balls :)

Trades... FB, QCOM and AAPL

Below are some conditions I am waiting for to take on some trades:

FB - Supports were broken, and from a technical perspective, I am waiting for 22-24 to be seen. (I would like to start re-entering into FB near 24.)

QCOM - I think right now provides a compelling deal, especially considering the level of advancements the iPhone and Android made with smartphone sales. (See below post.) QCOM has chips in most of the key phones. But looking at the technicals, and the negativity of the Fiscal Cliff, QCOM maybe testing 60 again. I will start re-entering toward that level.

AAPL - I am tired of pointing out all the positive facts with the stock. After this mention, I will stop blogging about it until they report or something extraordinary happens that merits mention. IMO, the level of share gain they are seeing (see below post) will produce a earnings beat. I think the negativity of the analysts are grossly misplaced, but this is what happens in a cycle-of-negativity. Fundamentals take a back seat to the technicals. (This is how we see analyst take down their target prices, yet consensus earnings estimates stay exactly the same.)

side note: I really want to start entering the banks again, but they are still too overbought. I would like to see more consolidation. Today's declines really did not do much to entice a re-entry.

iOS is gaining smartphone share sales

iOS is gaining in every market. Below is a month-over-month look at smartphone sales share provided by Kantar. (China was a soft spot most likely due to the iPhone 5 release.)

Market Thought... let the bitch slapping begin

Boehner could not even get enough votes for his Plan B. (I am guessing the "B" was for Bullshit.) If the futures are any indication, looks like some serious bitch-slapping is about to begin.

This is embarrassing.  The republicans could not even get their shit together to have a bullshit vote for their own plan, which means there is no leadership within the party. Its truly in chaos.  

December 21st 2012 will be the end of something. Its the end of the divisive ideology of the current republican party.

Whatever. I will start using this opportunity to re-enter the banks.