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Thursday, January 31, 2013

Wonder the future... $FB

Facebook reported pretty solid mobile Ad numbers (along with the rest of the business), and continues to indicate the platform will be one of the best (if not the best) play for mobile ad monetization.

What I was really interested to hear more about was Facebook Graph and progress in search.  Zuck was pretty mum, but recent developments tell such an interesting story.

Over the last week Wonder came and went. Wonder is a natural language search, created by Yandex Labs, that utilized Facebook's existing APIs to produce a pretty nice social search app.

The app was short lived as it was pulled because it violated Facebook's terms.

The reason I mention this third party app is because if Yandex Labs can produce a fluid search function from Facebook APIs, then the probability is pretty high that Facebook will produce something very cool from Graph Search.  (Along with the obvious monetization coming from search.)

Ever since AMZN reported, I really don't know what to think about the current trading dynamic. The only thing I know is how I will trade.  This is support near 29. Ideally I would like to see Facebook decline to the 38SMA, and go heavy. But the results don't seem to merit a 17-18% decline.

After this period of consolidation, if the market players get all "Amazon" on this mofo, I am looking for FB to test 37.

(At 37, FB would be given about an $80B market cap. Doesn't seem unrealistic when considering the established growth potential. Along with the fact that the management specifically stated that the increase in 2013 operational costs is directly related to new product initiatives/hiring.  In other words, multiple catalysts.) 

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