The market is still playing out the anticipated thesis. Here are a few updated charts to suggesting the thesis.
1. SP500-Vix overlay, in relation to the current rally dynamic (starting on March 2009)
There is more complacency to go. The market's trading dynamic says so.
(Also, the VIX chart is not oversold, and does not suggest a spike. At least not yet.)
2. The 10yr chart. Does this chart look like the bond market is punishing or that US GDP is entering a growth of higher than 2-3%?
If I am wrong, so be it. But I will not hesitate to add on a decline that place sooner then my thesis indicates.
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