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Friday, December 31, 2010

Market Thought... consolidated?

When I look across the indexes, and various stocks I see an internal market that has somewhat consolidated.

Its weird. Or maybe we find ourselves in a scenario where everyone 'knows' something is going to happen, so that 'something' will not happen.

Throughout the week I kept hearing the chatter that the market will pull back in January. (I, for one, was/am holding this thesis.) But when everyone on CNBC agrees to the thesis, and I mean everyone, I have to re-question the thesis. (Despite the general bullish thesis on the market.)

My VIX/current-market-rally overlay chart saw a mini spike earlier this week. I thought the strength in the week would cause it to re-test the low, but it has not. IMO, this means too many players are betting the same way: protection for an early January pull back.

Basically, the chances of a pullback in early January have declined.

With that said, I am still protected, but with the addition of AAPL and ATI, I am not as protected. (And I am about to add to my AAPL call position if it keeps declining today.)

I was planning on adding to the protection when the VIX retests the lower line on this chart.

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