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Monday, December 20, 2010

Market Thought... control the fear

Today I kept seeing more and more articles regarding the low VIX and 'complacency'. Not to mention, new power players on wall street (that emerged strongly after the crisis then correctly turned bullish), Barry Ritholtz and Doug Kass, started to turn their backs onto the current market rally. Although Doug Kass incorrectly started getting bearish much sooner.

I am annoyed when these (and other) commentators are 'turning-their-back' because there is no legitimate reason to do so. On top of being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, they will take a known issue, and try to justify why the market "should" go down. Instead, they should be assessing the validity of the reasons, but they do not. (Maybe because some 'technical trigger' is over powering their sense of judgement, I do not know.)

The other day I indicated to protect, but that does not mean I am turning my back on this market. I am as bullish as they come, and the fundamentalist in me thinks we have a multi-year bull market on our hands. (Hence the reason I have a 'timeless portfolio'. If I was not bullish on a multi-year thesis, I would not be executing such a strategy for a timeless portfolio!) Obviously I do not trade via multi-year, I am a multi - minute/hour/day/week/month trader.

This is why I assessed the fundamentals a few weeks back, in anticipation for this very moment via the Market Thought post 'maybe, maybe not'. (I did not include state and local gov. financial woes because actions were taken very early on, and this is a work in progress, not a turn-on-a-dime kind of a fix. But as I have already pointed out, many issues are exaggerated.)

The thought of protection (short-term market protection) was triggered by a technical signal, nothing more.

I did not sell any long position because the VIX can linger for a while before over-bought conditions, within the market, triggers a sell-off.

And if/when the market is too over extended, around 1290 before the next quarter earnings, I will start selling my longs and add to my market short. (Although selling a specific position, for me, is more dependent on the individual stock.)

I will be a buyer as things correct. (I highlighted potential market support via the market thought post 'recap'.)

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