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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

missed the short

Seeing the action, I obviously missed the short-term short opportunity. If I did have a short I would be capturing the profits in the short, and going long certain names like AAPL (which I added this morning, and prepared to add if it goes to 245-250).


  1. Why are you so (apparently) sure that we--and perhaps the world--aren't simply headed into the double-dip recession that some have been fearing?

    As always, I appreciate your thoughts.

  2. The macro economic data definitely supports a slowing in the US. (we can call it whatever we like: 'new normal', slow down, recession, whatever)

    But from what has been told via conference calls, and earnings, we are not seeing that slowdown with the rest-of-world. Anyone who says other wise is simply ignoring this fact.

    Also, i do not particularly care if we do slow down. imo, the market is/has already priced that in. When I look at many many companies with international exposure I am hard pressed to find overextended valuations.

    The stock market is not about an economy. It is about an individual company's ability to profit (regardless of macro environment). This gets lost way to easily when constant fear is promoted.

    I see how IBM, AAPL, GS and others performed (earnings wise) during the worst credit freeze since the great depression, and I do not see a US slow down affecting their earnings potential enough to merit drastically lower PEs.