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Thursday, August 5, 2010

Market Thought... up or down

Tomorrow should be interesting, as the market awaits the jobs number tomorrow. Especially if the jobs number is now a leading indicator. (And based on how many people have put this number on a pedestal, it definitely seems like a leading indicator now.)

When I look at the fundies (bottom-up valuation of key individual names) and the technicals, I do not see a market that is driven by optimism or euphoria.

The SP500 rallied from its low nicely because it was unjustly put there. Now it has a series of resistance points above its current level, but it is not as overbought as one would think. The oscillators (at least the ones I follow) simply do not suggest it.

On a weak jobs number, the market may very well retest the 320SMA. On a stronger jobs number, it may very well test 1150, if not higher. (It should not re-test the 1020 low because there is no longer a fear of Europe or China collapsing.)


The stock closed in a bullish position. Regardless of how the market reacts over the next few days, I will look to add on weakness. (I just do not know if we will see any until 9ish)

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